“Localization not globalization” is one of my major trends to watch out for. A harmonious, integrated global business world isn’t a done deal yet.
So if the world did split, what might it look like?
An article in the current issue of The World Today[1] may give us some important pointers and at least an initial map to debate – especially for those readers worried about the long-term viability of their now geographically stretched value chains. This article centres upon oil supply and presents a map with four zones that may be a useful starting point for thinking about the structure of a new world. The zones are:
Zone #1: Atlantic. Broadly, the US, South America, Europe and Atlantic or Western Africa.
Zone #2: Middle East. Potentially extending into Southern Russia.
Zone #3: Asia-Pacific. Including Australia.
Zone #4: Russia and Central Asia.
If energy supplies prove to be the “root of all evil”, then these are interesting Zones to watch.
Even more interestingly, Zone #1 – Atlantic - is less dependent upon oil from outside the Zone (54% of supplies come from countries within the Zone). However, only 22% of Zone 3′s supplies (Asia-Pacific) come from countries within that Zone.
And that brings us to another interesting point, or, for the scenario planners out there, a shaping event. Around 2030 the Asia-Pacific Zone will start to have to look for oil sources outside its traditional supplier – Zone #2 – Middle East. It will have to look towards Zone #4 and interestingly, Western Africa.
Some food for thought and debate I hope.
Reference
[1] J. Mitchell, “New Oil Axis,” The World Today, vol. 66, 2010, pp. 9-11.