My proposition has always been that it is the period after a recession that is most relevant for business strategy. Typically, changes in, for example, consumer behaviour that we witness during the recession are merely short-term reactions.
The time to get out and find out how customers’ needs are more permanently changing is after the recession. In the past I have predicted at least two waves of permanent change in customers’ needs and behaviours during the months and years after the official end of the recession. The first change being the realisation that we are not returning to the pre-recession halcyon days of debt-fuelled growth, the second wave taking place when the macro economic structure of countries (such as the highly financial services dependent UK) changes, again to reflect the new reality.
Recent research[1] tells us that this first post-recession wave of change has not yet started. This survey reveals that under 1 in 4 (23%) feel that the UK’s government’s impending austerity measures will affect them. So a surprise is in store for many.
It is also the time for astute businesses to identify the emerging needs and behaviours that may shape business strategy for the next decade.
Reference
[1] Eaglesham, J Pain message yet to be heard, says poll. Financial Times. June 14, 2010