07 Jul 10 To trust or not to trust?

Arguably two books, published over the last twenty years, have made a profound impact on the way that business leaders see the future world. One is Fukuyama’s The End of History and the Last Man[1] arguing that western-based liberal democracy will spread across the globe. The other is Friedman’s The World is Flat [2] making the case for “corporate globalisation”.

Both have been interpreted as predicting a world free of conflict and the emergence of a new era of trust. Indeed, if we look back at business plans prepared before the Great Recession, it would probably be hard to find reference to conflict, protectionism and mistrust. And an unprecedented era of global economic growth appeared to give weight to the argument that history had ended – the world was entering a new phase of trust, co-operation and wealth for all.

Of course, if we had looked at the world from more than an economic perspective, then a different picture may have met our eyes.

But the above writings only represent one end of a continuum of thought regarding the future path of international relations and therefore globalisation. Others took a more questioning perspective found in Emmott’s Rivals[3] , Cooper’s Breaking of Nations[4] , Bobbit’s Terror and Consent[5] and finally at end of the continuum, Huntingdon’s Clash of Civilizations[6]. In varying degrees, these writings paint pictures of suspicion, mistrust and conflict.

So, what will the future hold?

Can we look forward to a new era of co-operation and trust spurred on by the need to mitigate the catastrophic effects of climate change and the eradication of poverty?

Or is this just a Panglossian wish? Will, for example, resource shortages and, in the developed world, the need to fundamentally restructure economies and industries lead to a fragmented world characterised by mistrust?

NB: For those interested in the negative pressures of globalisation from the perspective of the developed economies, then Andy Grove’s[7] – the co-founder of Intel – article provides an interesting perspective.

References
[1] F. Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man, New York: Avon, 1992.
[2] T. Friedman, The World is Flat: The globalized world in the twenty-first century, London: Penguin, 2006.
[3] B. Emmott, Rivals: How the power struggle between China, India and Japan will shape the next decade, London: Penguin, 2009.
[4] R. Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and chaos in the twenty-first century, London: Atlantic Books, 2003.
[5] P. Bobbitt, Terror and Consent: The wars for the twenty-first century, London: Penguin, 2008.
[6] S. Huntingdon, The Clash of Civilzations and the Remaking of World Order, London: Simon & Schuster, 1997.
[7] A. Grove, How to Make an American Job Before It’s Too Late, Bloomberg, July 1, 2010.

Tags: mistrust, protectionism, trust

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